ECON2020-21: Updates & Score 18/6

A quick update of the ECON2020-21 forecasting game, just before the England – Scotland game hits us.

England – Scotland

The game of tonight is evidently England – Scotland. It’s make-it-or-break-it for Scotland while England has a chance to secure their place in the knockout phase. I will be watching it in a very relaxed mood after last night’s 2-0 win of the Netherlands over Austria. and I wish my England-fan colleagues a joyful and satisfying game. Denmark-Belgium was a tense game that, in my eyes, Belgium won with luck and not entirely deservedly. It looks difficult for Denmark to secure a place in the knock-out stage as all will depend what happens in the other groups. That they will be facing Russia won’t help.

How’s the score?

So how have our forecasters been doing? Well, let’s get to the graph showing how we got where we are at this moment, minutes before the Croatia – Czech Republic game.

We are about half-way through the group phase and ever since game 15 the forecasts seem to have gotten better. At least it definitely looks like many forecasters are scoring better since game 15. Looking at those steep increases during the last two games we might actually be looking at a change of front-runner again soon.

But not yet, because “Surfing Manatees” is still in the lead closely followed by “Would Rather Be Watching Cricket“. It makes you wonder what the latter’s forecasts would look like if they were rather watching football?

Together with “Ferris Bueller” these three have clearly created some distance between them and the “peleton” … which reminds me that I really miss watching “La Tour de France“.

What’s next?

Well, evidently group D will have its two 2nd games tonight. The “local” derby between England and Scotland is likely to be high on emotion. Croatia and the Czech Republic are teams that can put on a good show with delightful football. But will these teams? Or will fear strike the hearts of all four and will we see two games of 4 teams waiting for their chance while minimizing risk? We will know in a few hours.

And tomorrow … tomorrow is the second game day for the Group of Death. Germany and Hungary have to win, but neither Portugal or France can afford to lose. Will it be a day of fear? Or a day of sparkling football? Let’s hope the latter.

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