Since January 18th I have been modelling the Wuhan/China #covid19 outbreak. Until 18 February I wrote a couple of post formulating a very basic model and seeing how it does. You find that here, here, here, here and here and overall the fit was good. Now a month later let's see how the model does … Continue reading #CoViD19: A final #coronavirus #modelling update
It has been a few days since the Chinese authorities changed their definition of "confirmed case" in describing the #coronavirus outbreak. In a previous post I checked whether my model needed modification, which seemed only minor. Now with a few days more of 'new' data, let's see what we find. Mortality shifts There is a … Continue reading #CoViD19: A #coronavirus #modelling update
The breaking-news last night was that Chinese authorities decided to redefine what a "confirmed case" was. This lead to an immediate jump in the number of confirmed cases as well as of confirmed deaths. Does this mean that my model laboured over the past few days was ripe for the trash can? Not really! Case … Continue reading Modelling #CoViD19: A #Coronavirus modelling update after case-redefinition
In a previous post , 4 days ago, I presented some common-sense modelling of the #Coronavirus #outbreak which was simply an attempt to check the sensibility of the official numbers. I updated that modelling two days ago using the data of two days for some minor adjustments. Now, again two days later, a second update. … Continue reading Modelling #CoViD19: A #Coronavirus modelling update
A few days ago I presented a simple model for the outbreak of the Coronavirus and the main conclusion of that was that the numbers reported by the Chinese authorities seems sensible and reasonable. That does not make them correct of course but it should make us weary of outlandish conspiracy theories. Here is an … Continue reading Modelling #2019NCoV: An Update
The #Coronavirus outbreak of 2019/2020 is currently dominating the news cycle. Let's have a look how the official data from the Chinese Ministry of Health compare to three relatively simple models for such a single-centre outbreak and ask ourselves what this tells us. Simple exponentials The simplest view of the outbreak of an infectious virus … Continue reading Modelling the #CoronaVirus outbreak
Inspired by mathematical models of learning in games I set-up a simplistic model of a learner that slowly seeks her way into learning new knowledge and analyse how in such a model two model students can interact. The results suggest something interesting regarding the timing of group-work in courses. Learning in Games One context in … Continue reading The Econophysics of Learning: A model student #1
In this short blog I want to have a look at why social media are so ideal as the battleground for radicalisation and the intervention of outside parties in socio-political processes. In this post I want to discus a modelling exercise I recently did and which I reported with technical details here. But in this … Continue reading Populist radicalisation & outside disruptors
My Imaginary Numbers 