#CoViD19: A #coronavirus #modelling update

It has been a few days since the Chinese authorities changed their definition of "confirmed case" in describing the #coronavirus outbreak. In a previous post I checked whether my model needed modification, which seemed only minor. Now with a few days more of 'new' data, let's see what we find. Mortality shifts There is a … Continue reading #CoViD19: A #coronavirus #modelling update

Modelling #CoViD19: A #Coronavirus modelling update after case-redefinition

The breaking-news last night was that Chinese authorities decided to redefine what a "confirmed case" was. This lead to an immediate jump in the number of confirmed cases as well as of confirmed deaths. Does this mean that my model laboured over the past few days was ripe for the trash can? Not really! Case … Continue reading Modelling #CoViD19: A #Coronavirus modelling update after case-redefinition

Modelling #CoViD19: A #Coronavirus modelling update

In a previous post , 4 days ago, I presented some common-sense modelling of the #Coronavirus #outbreak which was simply an attempt to check the sensibility of the official numbers. I updated that modelling two days ago using the data of two days for some minor adjustments. Now, again two days later, a second update. … Continue reading Modelling #CoViD19: A #Coronavirus modelling update

Modelling the #CoronaVirus outbreak

The #Coronavirus outbreak of 2019/2020 is currently dominating the news cycle. Let's have a look how the official data from the Chinese Ministry of Health compare to three relatively simple models for such a single-centre outbreak and ask ourselves what this tells us. Simple exponentials The simplest view of the outbreak of an infectious virus … Continue reading Modelling the #CoronaVirus outbreak